## Predicting the present

In the light of historical data it's easy to see how we ended up at the current situation. No matter what the situation is there is always clear indicators predicting the outcome that can be found afterwards when the outcome is known.

Even if we would have the same near perfect information for future events the predictions become more vague. No matter how possible some outcome is there are always other options that are also possible. And those probabilities all compound. So in the end, any outcome is just a sum of those probabilities.