## Predicting the present

In the light of historical data it's easy to see how we ended up at the current situation. No matter what the situation is there is always clear indicators predicting the outcome that can be found afterwards when the outcome is known.

Even if we would have the same near perfect information for future events the predictions become more vague. No matter how possible some outcome is there are always other options that are also possible. And those probabilities all compound. So in the end, any outcome is just a sum of those probabilities.

The outcome we end up in present is also just a probability. The one that just happened to turn out from the dice of fate. Other outcomes could have been possible as well. They just didn't end up happening this time. But given the same premises we wouldn't necessarily end up with the same outcome next time. Using past outcomes as proof is a dangerous thing. There are always the probability for things going differently. And all those small differences can lead to a big difference in the final outcome.